node rebuild.mjs — $0, no keys, no deps
Track thesis
An investment thesis is only as good as its evidence. This note tests one claim about NEAR — that growth in real onchain capital tells a story the token price alone does not — using public data only, in a pipeline that rebuilds every figure below on demand. The claim, the counter-evidence, and what would falsify it are stated plainly in THESIS.md.
| Measure | Current build | Change, 90d |
|---|---|---|
| Chain TVL (DefiLlama) | $169.0M | ▲ +82.9% |
| Stablecoins on NEAR (DefiLlama) | $130.5M | ▲ +1.9% |
| NEAR price (CoinGecko, 365d) | $3.67 | — |
| Market cap (CoinGecko, 365d) | $4.82B | — |
| TVL ÷ market cap (365d overlap) | 0.035 (3.5%) | — |
| corr(TVL, price), daily (364 samples) | 0.306 | — |
Table 1 — All values computed at this build from raw snapshots in data/*.json; nothing hand-edited, nothing invented.
Total value locked — capital actively committed to NEAR applications — reads $169.0M: up +82.9% in 90 days, and still 64.9% below the peak of May 2022. A thesis that quotes only one of the two numbers is selling something other than an analysis.
Source: DefiLlama chain TVL. Computed at build from data/chain_tvl.json — snapshot included in the repo.
Stablecoin balances are demand that stays after the trading stops. The series reads $130.5M — changed just +1.9% in 90 days against a longer, flatter history. It stands unexplained here on purpose; a claim cannot be bullish on autopilot.
Source: DefiLlama stablecoins per chain (stablecoincharts/NEAR). Note the scale: this chart is smaller than a single notch of Figure 1.
The token's daily close ($3.67 at this build) is kept in view throughout for comparison. It is treated as an outcome to be explained — never as input of proof. Free CoinGecko data covers 365 days; that is why the paired figures below are window views, not full history.
Source: CoinGecko free public API. Rate-limited; when it fails, the build degrades honestly to TVL and stablecoins only.
Market cap is what speculation believes; TVL is what capital does. Over the 365-day overlap the market pays about $29 of market cap per $1 of working capital (TVL/MC 0.035 (3.5%), against a window peak of 0.065 (6.5%)). Whether that multiple compresses or expands is the investment thesis, stated in one number.
Market cap
Chain TVL, same window
Sources: CoinGecko (market cap), DefiLlama (TVL). Daily-return correlation 365d: 0.306 over 364 samples — descriptive, not causal.
node rebuild.mjs — refetches every series and re-renders all figures above: DefiLlama for chain TVL and NEAR stablecoins, CoinGecko free tier for price and market cap (365-day window), NEAR public mainnet RPC for the liveness check. Metrics that genuinely cannot be computed for zero cost — daily active accounts, per-contract usage, Intents swap volume — are not substituted with estimates; the corresponding BigQuery SQL ships in sql/ so anyone can produce them. Caveats. Correlation is not causation; TVL methodology is DefiLlama's, not this note's; CoinGecko's free window is 365 days. See README "Methodology notes" for the data-quality bug found and documented mid-build.